Pengembangan Model Optimalisasi Manajemen Sumber Daya Kantin untuk Mendukung Program Employee Wellness melalui Prediksi Pola Kunjungan Karyawan Menggunakan Model Time Series SARIMAX
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.55826/jtmit.v5i3.2105Keywords:
SARIMAX, Overestimasi, Efisiensi Finansial, Kunjungan Kantin, Employee WellnessAbstract
Investasi pada kesehatan dan kesejahteraan karyawan melalui kantin korporat merupakan upaya strategis untuk meningkatkan moral dan produktivitas kerja. Efektivitasnya sering terkendala overestimasi operasional, yaitu angka perencanaan (plan) penyediaan layanan melampaui realisasi kunjungan aktual sehingga menimbulkan inefisiensi anggaran dan kerugian finansial. Penelitian ini mengembangkan model peramalan time series SARIMAX untuk memproyeksikan kunjungan harian secara presisi guna meminimalisir selisih rencana–realisasi pada Kantin S PT XYZ. Pendekatan kuantitatif berbasis metodologi Box-Jenkins diterapkan atas 1.035 data kunjungan harian (Juli 2023–April 2026). Tujuh kandidat variabel eksogen diuji melalui grid search dan backward elimination berbasis p value, meliputi Ramadan, Idul Fitri, libur sekolah, dan kegiatan internal perusahaan. Model final SARIMAX₇ menetapkan tiga variabel eksogen signifikan (p<0,001): Ramadan, Idul Fitri, dan libur sekolah; kegiatan internal tidak signifikan. Model mencapai MAPE 10,14% pada kondisi normal (good forecasting) dengan residu white noise. Simulasi menunjukkan reduksi overestimasi 68,8%, setara potensi penghematan sekitar Rp 600,2 juta per tahun. Temuan ini memberikan landasan ilmiah bagi optimasi anggaran kantin sekaligus keberlanjutan program employee wellness.
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