Evaluasi Proyek Overhaul Turbin Gas dengan Metode CPM, PERT, SMED, dan Monte Carlo
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.55826/jtmit.v5i3.1965Keywords:
CPM, PERT, SMED, Simulasi Monte Carlo, Equivalent Availability Factor (EAF)Abstract
Durasi overhaul yang panjang pada pembangkit listrik langsung memengaruhi keandalan operasi dan Equivalent Availability Factor (EAF) unit, karena setiap hari tambahan shutdown berarti hilangnya produksi dan meningkatnya risiko keterlambatan proyek. Penelitian ini menyusun model evaluasi overhaul yang memadukan Critical Path Method (CPM), Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT), Single Minute Exchange of Die (SMED), dan simulasi Monte Carlo, dengan studi kasus pada major inspection tiga unit turbin gas GT 2.1, GT 2.2, dan GT 2.3 di PLTGU Grati Blok 2. Jadwal proyek dimodelkan dengan Microsoft Project 2019, sedangkan risiko waktu dianalisis melalui simulasi Monte Carlo (1.000 iterasi, distribusi Beta-PERT) pada ModelRisk. Penerapan SMED secara bertahap berhasil memangkas durasi overhaul dari 45 hari pada kondisi eksisting menjadi 38, 35, dan 33 hari pada ketiga skenario percepatan, setara penurunan kumulatif 26,7% yang telah dikonfirmasi oleh realisasi lapangan. Percepatan ini turut mendorong kenaikan EAF unit di seluruh skenario, dengan manfaat finansial bersih yang signifikan terutama pada skenario yang sudah terealisasi penuh, yakni Skenario 3 (GT 2.2). Uji non-parametrik Kruskal-Wallis (H = 4.344,81; df = 4; p < 0,0001) mengonfirmasi bahwa perbedaan durasi antar skenario memang berbeda secara statistik, bukan sekadar variasi acak. Model evaluasi terpadu ini diharapkan dapat menjadi acuan pengambilan keputusan penjadwalan overhaul berbasis risiko pada pembangkit sejenis.
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