Analisis Biaya Incremental Gasifikasi Pembangkit Isolated dari BBM ke LNG dengan Pendekatan Equivalent Annual Cost dan Simulasi Monte Carlo
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.55826/jtmit.v5i3.1953Keywords:
biaya incremental, Equivalent Annual Cost, gasifikasi, Monte Carlo, Pembangkit isolatedAbstract
Konversi pembangkit listrik berbahan bakar minyak menjadi gas atau Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) merupakan strategi pengurangan biaya pokok produksi listrik pada rencana transisi energi nasional. Pada sistem isolated yang berkebutuhan energi rendah, memiliki tantangan biaya midstream yang tinggi dan keterbatasan alokasi volume Harga Gas Bumi Tertentu (HGBT). Studi ini meneliti biaya dampak konversi energi primer ini pada PLTMG XYZ. Biaya tersebut dipengaruhi oleh harga gas, biaya midstream, porsi volume HGBT, dan harga gas non-HGBT dengan basis Indonesian Crude Price (ICP). Dampaknya, keekonomian program ini mengalami ketidakpastian. Metode yang digunakan pada penelitian ini analisis biaya incremental dengan Equivalent Annual Cost (EAC) dan Incremental Net Present Value. Skenario porsi volume HGBT dan ketidakpastian ICP digunakan untuk menguji sensitivitas. Kesimpulannya, semua skenario deterministik menghasilkan Incremental NPV positif. Pada skenario 100% volume harga gas non-HGBT menghasilkan nilai Rp84,07 miliar, dan skenario 100% volume HGBT menghasilkan Rp783,56 miliar. Pada setiap penambahan 25% porsi volume HGBT, menurunkan biaya rata-rata Rp29,98 miliar per tahun. Dengan simulasi Monte Carlo skenario 100% harga gas non-HGBT menghasilkan risiko biaya tinggi, dengan rata-rata nilai Incremental NPV negatif Rp308,95 miliar. Sehingga keekonomian konversi bahan bakar pada pembangkit isolated dipengaruhi oleh harga gas plant gate, porsi alokasi HGBT, dan mitigasi risiko harga ICP.
References
[1] M. A. Rahmanta et al., “Insights into Small-Scale LNG Supply Chains for Cost-Efficient Power Generation in Indonesia,” Energies (Basel)., vol. 18, no. 8, Apr. 2025, doi: 10.3390/en18082079.
[2] Tumiran, L. M. Putranto, Sarjiya, F. D. Wijaya, A. Priyanto, and I. Savitri, “Generation Expansion Planning Based on Local Renewable Energy Resources: A Case Study of the Isolated Ambon-Seram Power System,” Sustainability (Switzerland), vol. 14, no. 5, Mar. 2022, doi: 10.3390/su14053032.
[3] J. Zhang, X. Yin, Z. Lei, J. Wang, Z. Fan, and S. Liu, “Economic Feasibility of LNG Business: An Integrated Model and Case Study Analysis,” Energies , vol. 17, no. 13, Jul. 2024, doi: 10.3390/en17133351.
[4] R. A. Machfudiyanto et al., “Optimization of the risk-based small-scale LNG supply chain in the Indonesian archipelago,” Heliyon, vol. 9, no. 8, Aug. 2023, doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e19047.
[5] M. A. Budiyanto and A. M. Febri, “LNG Transportation for Gas Power Plants with Small LNG Ships,” in E3S Web of Conferences, EDP Sciences, Aug. 2024. doi: 10.1051/e3sconf/202455903007.
[6] D. A. F. Muzhoffar, M. A. Budiyanto, A. Riadi, and A. N. Altaf, “Small-scale LNG Carriers Revolutionize Power Plant Supply in Eastern Indonesia,” Transactions on Maritime Science, vol. 14, no. 1, Apr. 2025, doi: 10.7225/toms.v14.n01.008.
[7] D. A. F. Muzhoffar, A. S. Auzani, A. N. Altaf, A. R. P. Putra, and C. B. J. Wahyono, “Comparative Analysis of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Distribution Scheme using Milk-Run and Hub-Spoke Methods on Small-Scale LNG Carrier in Eastern Indonesia,” Jurnal Sains Teknologi Transportasi Maritim, vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 36–44, May 2024, doi: 10.51578/j.sitektransmar.v6i1.85.
[8] M. A. Budiyanto, G. R. Novrian, A. Riadi, G. L. Putra, Gunawan, and G. Theotokatos, “Shipping cost feasibility of LNG distribution with multiple island gas power plant destinations,” Front. Energy Res., vol. 13, 2025, doi: 10.3389/fenrg.2025.1502518.
[9] L. Khoiriyah, K. B. Artana, and A. A. B. Dinariyana, “Conceptual design of floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) for Eastern Part Indonesia,” in IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, Institute of Physics, 2023. doi: 10.1088/1755-1315/1239/1/012015.
[10] O. Turbaningsih, W. N. H. Nisa, A. Mustakim, I. H. Nur, and P. Wuryaningrum, “The Study of Adaptive Planning Application for LNG Regasification Terminal Infrastructure in Indonesia,” in IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, IOP Publishing Ltd, Feb. 2022. doi: 10.1088/1755-1315/972/1/012075.
[11] A. N. Sommeng, Usman, and J. Kurnianto, “Techno-Economic and Risk Assessment of Small-Scale LNG Distribution for Replacing Diesel Fuel in Nusa Tenggara Region,” International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, vol. 13, no. 4, pp. 356–364, Jul. 2023, doi: 10.32479/ijeep.14446.
[12] E. Satrya, B. Koesuma, W. Andtania, and S. Utami, “Investment Analysis in Natural Gas Infrastructure Development for Nias Gas Engine Power Plant,” IOSR Journal of Mechanical and Civil Engineering (IOSR-JMCE) e-ISSN, vol. 19, no. 6, pp. 38–46, doi: 10.9790/1684-1906033846.
[13] D. Budiana and R. Dalimi, “The economics comparison of power plants fuelled by wellhead gas and liquefied natural gas in Aceh Province,” IOP Conf. Ser. Mater. Sci. Eng., vol. 1041, no. 1, p. 012019, Jan. 2021, doi: 10.1088/1757-899x/1041/1/012019.
[14] J. Li and L. Zhao, “Technical and Economic Evaluation and Development Policy Suggestions of LNG Power Plants: Evaluation and Development Policy,” International Journal of Information System Modeling and Design, vol. 13, no. 9, 2022, doi: 10.4018/IJISMD.303130.
[15] E. Iswandi, I. Supriyadi, and S. Thamrin, “Understanding gas prices: An overview of regulations and components affecting the Indonesian natural gas prices,” in IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, IOP Publishing Ltd, Jun. 2021. doi: 10.1088/1755-1315/753/1/012026.
[16] K. Pan, X. Xie, T. Zhang, R. Sun, H. Li, and Z. An, “Forecasting the LNG Manufacturing Price Index from a Supply and Demand Perspective: The Case of Peoples Republic of China,” International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, vol. 15, no. 4, pp. 537–544, Jun. 2025, doi: 10.32479/ijeep.19611.
[17] D. T. Utomo and C. Dianita, “Scenario-Based Evaluation of Economic Feasibility and Risk in City Gas Networks: A Case Study From East Java, Indonesia,” Scientific Contributions Oil and Gas, vol. 48, no. 2, pp. 139–147, May 2025, doi: 10.29017/scog.v48i2.1766.
[18] Z. Wang, Y. Huang, K. Zhou, Y. Zeng, X. Tang, and B. Bai, “Techno-economic assessment of wind and solar energy: Upgrading the LCOE model and enhancing geographical granularity,” Mar. 01, 2025, Elsevier Ltd. doi: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.101686.
[19] J. Xi, B. Zhang, and Y. Yang, “Calculation and Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis of the levelized cost of electricity for different energy power generation in the smart grid under time scales,” Energy Strategy Reviews, vol. 58, Mar. 2025, doi: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.101666.
[20] R. A. Machfudiyanto, W. P. Humang, I. Kamil, Y. Latief, N. Wahjuningsih, and Y. Y. Adi Putra, “Enhancing Small-Scale LNG supply Chains: Risk mitigation strategies and frameworks for archipelagic distribution,” Cleaner Logistics and Supply Chain, vol. 16, Sep. 2025, doi: 10.1016/j.clscn.2025.100249.
[21] A. C. P. T. Nugroho et al., “Mission Analysis of Small-Scale LNG Carrier as Feeder for East Indonesia: Ambon City as the Hub Terminal,” Evergreen, vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 1938–1950, Sep. 2023, doi: 10.5109/7151748.
[22] I. G. A. Banyupramesta and N. I. Arvitrida, “Distribution Route Optimization using Fleet Size and Mix Vehicle Routing Problem: A Case Study at Bali-Nusa Tenggara LNG Distribution,” in Proceedings of the 3rd South American International Industrial Engineering and Operations Management Conference, Asuncion, Paraguay: IEOM Society International, Jul. 2022, pp. 1681–1690.
[23] M. A. Budiyanto, I. K. Singgih, A. Riadi, and G. L. Putra, “Study on the LNG distribution to Mobile Power Plants using a Small-Scale LNG Carrier for the case of the Sulawesi region of Indonesia,” Energy Reports, vol. 8, pp. 374–380, Apr. 2022, doi: 10.1016/j.egyr.2021.11.211.
[24] L. T. . Blank and A. J. . Tarquin, Basics of engineering economy. McGraw-Hill Higher-Education, 2008
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Ady Rogo Priyono, Mar'atus Sholihah
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
