Analisis Penerapan Metode Monte Carlo Dibandingkan Dengan Metode Deterministik Dalam Kajian Finansial Proyek Infrastruktur Ketenagalistrikan HVDC 500KV Interkoneksi Sumatera Jawa
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.55826/jtmit.v5i2.1495Keywords:
HVDC, Interkoneksi Sumatera-Jawa, Kelayakan Finansial, Monte Carlo, Energi TerbarukanAbstract
Peningkatan kebutuhan listrik di Pulau Jawa tidak diimbangi oleh ketersediaan sumber energi primer yang mencukupi, sementara Pulau Sumatera memiliki potensi energi baru terbarukan (EBT) yang besar. Untuk menjembatani ketimpangan tersebut, dibutuhkan pembangunan proyek interkoneksi sistem kelistrikan melalui HVDC (High Voltage Direct Current) 500 kV antara Sumatera dan Jawa. Proyek ini merupakan bagian dari strategi transisi energi nasional dan menuntut investasi dalam skala besar, sehingga perlu dilakukan kajian kelayakan finansial yang komprehensif. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengevaluasi kelayakan finansial proyek Interkoneksi Sumatera–Jawa menggunakan dua pendekatan: metode deterministik dan simulasi Monte Carlo yang mempertimbangkan ketidakpastian variabel input. Hasil analisis menunjukkan tidak hanya nilai namun juga tingkat keyakinan kelayakan dari masing masing output IRR, NPV dan Payback Periode Simulasi Monte Carlo memberikan gambaran risiko yang lebih realistis dibandingkan pendekatan deterministik dan dapat digunakan sebagai dasar pengambilan keputusan investasi. Penelitian ini diharapkan dapat menjadi referensi dalam perencanaan investasi infrastruktur ketenagalistrikan yang berkelanjutan dan berbasis risiko.
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