Identifikasi Hambatan Utama Pengembangan Eksplorasi Panas Bumi di Indonesia Menggunakan Metode Grey Delphi
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.55826/jtmit.v5i3.2171Keywords:
energi panas bumi, Eksplorasi, Hambatan Teknis, Grey Delphi, Grey Number, IndonesiaAbstract
Indonesia memiliki potensi panas bumi yang sangat besar, namun realisasi pemanfaatannya masih jauh dari target nasional, terutama karena tingginya risiko dan hambatan pada tahap eksplorasi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi dan memprioritaskan hambatan teknis utama dalam eksplorasi panas bumi di Indonesia menggunakan metode Grey Delphi. Melalui tinjauan literatur yang komprehensif, dua belas variabel hambatan teknis diidentifikasi, kemudian divalidasi oleh panel ahli menggunakan kuesioner berbasis grey number untuk menangani ketidakpastian informasi. Data yang terkumpul diolah melalui proses whitening untuk menentukan nilai crisp bagi setiap variabel, dengan ambang batas (threshold) sebesar 0,65 sebagai kriteria penentu signifikansi hambatan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa terdapat dua hambatan teknis yang paling kritis, yaitu "Kelanjutan proses" dengan nilai crisp 0,720 dan "Metode Eksplorasi" dengan nilai crisp 0,700. Temuan ini mengindikasikan bahwa ketidakpastian dalam keberlanjutan investasi setelah perolehan data awal serta ketepatan metodologi eksplorasi menjadi tantangan krusial yang memerlukan perhatian segera. Sepuluh variabel lainnya, seperti kelayakan sumber panas, teknologi pelacakan, dan survei mikro-seismik, dinilai kurang signifikan oleh panel ahli pada tahap ini. Hasil penelitian ini memberikan rekomendasi strategis bagi pengembang dan pemerintah untuk lebih fokus pada perbaikan regulasi alur proses dan validitas teknik eksplorasi guna memitigasi risiko kegagalan sumur serta mempercepat pengembangan kapasitas panas bumi di Indonesia.
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