Correlation Analysis Between Changes in Regional Geopolitical Landscape and The Frequency An Severity Of Cyber Attacks On Critical Infrastructure In Indonesia

Abstract

This study aims to investigate and quantitatively analyze the correlation between the changing dynamics of the regional geopolitical landscape of Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific region and the frequency and severity of cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure (IK) in Indonesia during the period. Indonesia's critical infrastructure, which includes the energy, finance, communications, and defense sectors, has increasingly become a primary target for state-sponsored actors and hacktivist groups operating with political-economic motivations. Geopolitical changes, measured through indicators such as escalating maritime tensions in the South China Sea, shifting bilateral alliances, and the hegemonic competition between major powers (the US and China), are considered to influence the intensity and complexity of cyber threats. This study uses a correlational research design, integrating cyber incident data from the National Cyber and Crypto Agency (BSSN) and other trusted sources, including attack frequency and severity metrics, as well as qualitative data converted into a quantitative index of regional geopolitical events. Initial results are expected to show a significant positive correlation, indicating that escalating geopolitical tensions directly translate into increased cyber activity aimed at destabilization and espionage within Indonesia's financial system. This finding is crucial for formulating national cybersecurity policies and risk mitigation strategies aligned with geopolitical challenges.