Pengaruh Volume Pengiriman dan Return Rate COD terhadap Biaya Operasional Logistik pada Perusahaan Ekspedisi
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.55826/jtmit.v5i2.1736Keywords:
Pengiriman tahap akhir, Tingkat pengembalian paket, Sistem bayar di tempat, Biaya distribusiAbstract
Penelitian ini menganalisis sensitivitas biaya operasional last-mile delivery terhadap volume pengiriman dan return rate pada PT XYZ Ekspedisi di Bandung Timur, dengan proporsi transaksi Cash on Delivery (COD) mencapai 90%. Penelitian menggunakan 60 observasi data operasional harian selama November–Desember 2025 yang diperoleh dari catatan internal perusahaan. Pendekatan kuantitatif eksplanatori diterapkan dengan mengombinasikan Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) sebagai kerangka kualitatif untuk memetakan struktur penyebab kegagalan pengiriman dan regresi log-linear berganda dengan teknik mean centering sebagai instrumen kuantitatif utama. Model log-linear dipilih berdasarkan pertimbangan distribusi data yang mengandung skewness dan potensi heteroskedastisitas, serta relevansi pendekatan elastisitas dalam analisis sensitivitas biaya logistik. Secara fungsional, menghasilkan efek biaya yang bersifat nonlinear dan multipelatif (accelerating effect), terutama dipengaruhi oleh return rate. Hasil estimasi menghasilkan R² = 0.902, dengan koefisien elastisitas volume β₁ = 0.931 (near-unitary elasticity) dan koefisien semi-elastisitas return rate β₂ = 15.973. Uji asumsi klasik menunjukkan bahwa model memenuhi seluruh kriteria BLUE. Temuan ini mengindikasikan bahwa, dalam konteks variabel yang diamati dan spesifikasi model yang digunakan, return rate memiliki pengaruh yang relatif lebih besar terhadap biaya operasional dibandingkan dengan volume pengiriman. Oleh karena itu, pengendalian return rate berpotensi menjadi salah satu fokus strategis dalam meningkatkan efisiensi biaya operasional pada sistem distribusi berbasis COD.
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